AI and the Future of Work: A Case for Small Business Renaissance

As the director of ventures at Equitech Futures, I spend my days immersed in conversations about artificial intelligence—its potential, its perils, and its profound implications for our society. I'm a futurist trying to make sense of an increasingly chaotic present, where technological advancement seems to accelerate by the day.

In my discussions with founders and business leaders, I encounter the same questions repeatedly: How can we integrate AI into our operations? Will these powerful tools render entire departments obsolete? What does this mean for our company's future and the broader economy? Behind each question lies a palpable anxiety about what comes next.

The Dual Nature of My Relationship with AI

I believe deeply in AI's transformative potential. I've witnessed firsthand how it reduces barriers to innovation, democratizing the ability to build and create online. I've experienced its power as a thought partner, helping to refine ideas and generate new possibilities. The optimist in me sees a world where these tools amplify human creativity and allow us to solve previously intractable problems.

But I'm also just a person—sometimes tired, often worried. When I quiet the professional futurist voice and listen to my human concerns, I find myself asking the same questions that have haunted generations facing technological upheaval: What jobs will my children have when they grow up? Can we prevent a future dominated by technological overlords? How do we maintain what makes us human in an increasingly automated world?

The Age-Old Fear with New Urgency

The fear that technology will eliminate jobs isn't new—it has persisted throughout history precisely because it often comes true. The Luddites of early 19th century England weren't simply anti-technology; they were skilled textile workers whose livelihoods were threatened by mechanized looms. The agricultural mechanization of the 1920s-1940s displaced millions of farm workers, driving the Great Migration of African Americans from the rural South to industrial centers. The automation of automobile manufacturing in the 1970s-1980s devastated communities across the Midwest, creating what we now call the Rust Belt. While technological revolutions invariably create new types of work, the transition is rarely smooth.

Jobs disappear, livelihoods are disrupted, and communities suffer before new opportunities emerge. The cold reality is that many workers get left behind during these transitions.

What makes the AI revolution different is its unprecedented scope and scale. According to a 2023 Goldman Sachs report, AI could automate up to 300 million jobs globally and affect 25% of work tasks in the US and Europe. McKinsey estimates that approximately 30% of hours worked globally could be automated by 2030. Unlike previous technological shifts that transformed industries one by one, AI threatens to reshape the entire labor landscape simultaneously.

Perhaps most surprisingly, it's beginning with knowledge workers and white-collar professionals—the very jobs long considered safe from automation. Legal researchers, financial analysts, software developers, and content creators—careers that required significant education and specialized training—are now seeing aspects of their work automated by increasingly capable AI systems.

America's Troubling Lack of Preparedness

The consequences of this disruption will be global, but the United States appears particularly vulnerable. Our government has consistently failed to support labor through technological transitions. Healthcare remains tethered to employment, leaving displaced workers without coverage—a problem unique among developed nations. The U.S. spends just 0.1% of GDP on active labor market policies (job training, placement assistance, etc.) compared to the OECD average of 0.5%. Our safety net grows increasingly threadbare, with unemployment benefits replacing only about 40% of lost wages on average and varying dramatically by state. Labor unions continue to weaken, with membership falling from 20.1% in 1983 to just 10.1% in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, corporate interests routinely trump those of workers and civil society, with corporate tax rates falling from 35% to 21% in 2017 while funding for social services stagnates.

We have a rich body of scholarship on labor history and technological disruption that should inform our response. The coming changes will have profound effects on family structures, markets, political systems, and our fundamental understanding of the human condition.

The Long Game vs. Immediate Action

In an ideal world, we would implement solutions like universal basic income (UBI) and decouple basic needs—housing, food, healthcare, education, social connection—from employment. This represents a worthy long-term goal, though it directly challenges core tenets of American capitalism. Such paradigm shifts typically unfold over generations.

But we don't have generations. By conservative estimates, we have perhaps 2-3 years before we begin witnessing massive labor disruption. While I personally advocate for dismantling and reimagining American capitalism into something more humane, sustainable, and oriented toward human flourishing, we must simultaneously implement practical measures to prevent widespread suffering and social unrest.

We should explore multiple approaches and conduct numerous experiments to advance technology for public benefit without tearing apart our social fabric. The dystopian future where shareholders prosper while society collapses remains a distinct possibility we must actively work to prevent.

Small Businesses: A Pragmatic Path Forward

One immediate, tangible solution aligns with deeply-held American values: making it substantially easier to start and operate small businesses. The American Dream, however elusive it may sometimes seem, centers on individual autonomy to create something valuable for one's community and to be rewarded for that contribution.

Yet today's America makes small business ownership extraordinarily difficult. Entrepreneurs face significant personal risk without employer-provided health insurance, with the average annual premium for family coverage reaching $23,968 in 2024 according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Real estate costs for physical locations have skyrocketed, with commercial rent increasing 20% between 2019 and 2023 in major metropolitan areas. Recent tariffs have increased shipping expenses for online businesses, with import costs rising by 15-25% for many small retailers.

Securing business loans remains challenging, particularly for those without substantial assets or privileged backgrounds. The Federal Reserve's Small Business Credit Survey reveals that only 35% of small businesses that applied for traditional bank loans received the full amount requested. The approval rates are even lower for minority-owned businesses (24%) and women-owned businesses (31%). Parents face the additional burden of finding affordable childcare while launching their ventures, with the average cost of childcare in the U.S. now exceeding $10,000 per year per child according to the Department of Labor.

What Aggressive Government Support Could Look Like

What would it look like if the U.S. government treated small business creation with the same urgency and resources it devotes to corporate subsidies or military spending? Here's what truly ambitious support could include:

First, we need universal healthcare decoupled from employment. This single policy would dramatically reduce the risk of entrepreneurship and free potential business owners from the "healthcare handcuffs" that keep them in corporate jobs. The Small Business Majority found that 60% of small business owners would be more likely to start or expand their business if healthcare weren't a concern.

Second, we should establish a national small business banking system, perhaps through the Postal Service, offering low-interest loans with streamlined applications specifically designed for first-time entrepreneurs. Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) have proven this model works, with default rates similar to traditional banks despite serving higher-risk borrowers.

Third, we could create "Main Street Zones" with reduced property taxes and rent controls for small businesses, especially in communities experiencing economic transition. This could be paired with grants for renovating empty storefronts, turning vacant buildings into incubators for local entrepreneurship.

Fourth, a dramatic expansion of Small Business Development Centers with specialized AI advisors could help new entrepreneurs leverage these technologies affordably. Imagine if every community had experts helping local business owners implement AI solutions for inventory management, customer service, and marketing—dramatically reducing the expertise barrier.

Fifth, we need robust childcare subsidies for entrepreneurs with children. Australia's childcare subsidy model, which covers up to 85% of costs for low-income families, has been directly linked to increased workforce participation, particularly among women.

Finally, we should establish "entrepreneurship sabbaticals"—government-backed programs allowing employed individuals to take 6-12 months to start a business while maintaining basic income and healthcare. This would create a safety net for the critical early stages of business development when income is typically nonexistent.

These policies would require significant investment, but compared to the economic and social cost of mass unemployment from AI disruption, they represent a bargain. More importantly, they align with deeply held American values of self-reliance, community, and opportunity—making them potentially achievable even in our polarized political environment.

The Human Economy AI Can't Replace

While we cannot precisely predict which jobs AI will eliminate or transform, we know with certainty that people will continue to crave human experiences. They'll still want to dine out, receive massages, shop at neighborhood markets, and gather in coffee shops. They'll need haircuts, home renovations, and evenings filled with community activities.

When I'm overwhelmed by these big questions about our technological future, I find grounding in a simple ritual: a walk down Clark Street, the main thoroughfare in my Chicago neighborhood. This isn't just any commercial strip—it's where my favorite coffee shop welcomes me by name each morning, where I buy treats for my dog Pepper at the local pet supply store, where I grab a beer with friends after a long day. It's where I find paint for my new office, discover my next read at the independent bookstore, and when anxiety creeps in, pick up a jigsaw puzzle to calm my racing thoughts.

This street is a small business heaven—consistently ranked among the country's best neighborhoods, where local community groups fight vociferously at the mere mention of a chain moving onto the block. I love it. This is a place that makes me feel connected to my community in a way that no digital platform ever could.

The street also employs many people I know—not as close friends necessarily, but as the individuals who bring my neighborhood alive and keep it running. We trade small talk, share laughs, and check in with each other. These micro-interactions form the invisible threads of community that technology often fails to replicate.

When my friends are stressed or dreaming about their futures, they don't fantasize about launching B2B SaaS agentic workflow businesses—they talk about opening bookstore-craft corners that serve coffee and moonlight as open mic poetry venues. We dream about businesses that bring people together and serve tangible human needs. This is business at its best, a vision that often feels lost amid the technopolies and corporate interests currently wielding the most power in shaping our collective future.

Favorite Andersonville staple on Clark Street

These small businesses aren't just convenience—they're the fabric of community, the physical spaces where life happens. They're run by people who know my name, who ask about my family, who share in the everyday joys and struggles that make us human. No AI, no matter how advanced, can replicate these experiences of connection and belonging.

In fact, as AI becomes more prevalent, human-centered local experiences may become even more valuable. These businesses create jobs, foster connection, and provide purpose—addressing the very existential threats AI activates in our collective consciousness.

AI as an Enabler of Small Business

The irony is that AI itself can dramatically lower the barriers to small business ownership. These tools can help entrepreneurs create marketing materials, build websites, manage accounting, file taxes, organize inventory, and enhance customer service operations—tasks that previously required significant expertise or resources.

Embracing the Inevitable, Thoughtfully

AI is coming. We cannot stop it. But we can strengthen our human infrastructure to support fundamental human needs: meaningful work, purpose, security, and connection. Small businesses represent a proven pathway toward meeting these needs in an AI-transformed economy.

If there's one principle from AI development that can help us build a better small business ecosystem, it's the power of distributed networks—dense webs of commerce and relationships that create resilience through their interconnectedness rather than their size. Just as AI systems benefit from distributed processing, our economy might benefit from distributed ownership and localized decision-making.

I want to continue building the future, a future that will undoubtedly involve AI and other advanced technologies. But that future might also involve me opening a sauna club in my historically Swedish and queer neighborhood in Chicago. This seemingly small act of entrepreneurship represents one tactical approach to averting the worst consequences of AI disruption—creating human-centered spaces where technology serves as a tool rather than a replacement.

By making entrepreneurship more accessible, we can harness AI's capabilities while preserving what makes us human. This approach won't solve every challenge the AI revolution presents, but it offers a pragmatic starting point—one that builds on existing American values while embracing technological progress.

The evidence suggests this approach can work. During the 2008 financial crisis, regions with higher rates of small business formation recovered more quickly, according to research from the Kauffman Foundation. Countries with stronger entrepreneurial ecosystems like Estonia and Singapore have shown greater resilience to technological disruption. And historically, periods of significant technological change have often coincided with entrepreneurial booms—from the small manufacturers of the Industrial Revolution to the web design firms of the early internet era.

Small businesses remain the backbone of the American economy, employing 46% of the private workforce according to the Small Business Administration. By removing barriers to entrepreneurship and harnessing AI as a force multiplier for small business owners, we can create not just jobs, but meaningful livelihoods in an increasingly automated world.